2008-2009 BIG EAST PREVIEW: 16) SOUTH FLORIDA

September 20, 2008

Stan Heath’s introduction to the Big East conference was not a pleasant one as his South Florida Bulls finished just 3-15 in the conference and 12-19 on the season. For the third consecutive season since joining the Big East from Conference USA, the Bulls did not qualify as one of the 12 teams for the Big East Conference Tournament at Madison Square Garden.

There was a first in 2007-2008 for the Bulls as South Florida won their first Big East road game, a 54-52 triumph at Rutgers, in their three seasons as a conference member. Now, in his second year at the helm, coach Heath will try to piece together a roster that has had several comings and goings over recent months in hopes of moving up the conference ladder.

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Comings:

New faces on the Bulls roster for 2008-2009 will include JUCO transfer Alex Rivas-Sanchez of Pratt CC in Kansas, freshman guard Gaby Belardo who was at Notre Dame Prep last season, Eladio Espinosa, a power forward from Hargrave Military Academy, and Justin Leemow, a NYC guard who attended Mt. Zion Academy last year. After the first semester ends in mid-December, Mike Mercer, a highly touted guard out of high school a few years ago, will be eligible for competition. Mercer transferred in mid-year last season after being dismissed from the Georgia program. Another transfer, Augustus Gilchrist, has applied for a waiver to be eligible immediately after coming from Maryland. Gilchrist would have an instant impact if the waiver is granted by the NCAA.

Goings:

Kentrell Gransberry, who averaged 16 points and nearly 11 rebounds a game, graduated and a plethora of players transferred either during the season (Dante Curry) or following the season (Orane Chin, Amu Saaka, Solomon Bozeman and Aaron Holmes). Also, recruits Teeng Akol, Eugene Teague and Dwan McMillan failed to be cleared academically and are not with the program.

Net Impact:

It is hard to see the Bulls improving this season. If Gilchrist is granted a waiver that will help a frontcourt that had just one productive player last season (Gransberry), and is still well below par for the Big East even with Gilchrist. The addition of Mercer would create a backcourt that can compete, especially if the talented Mercer is healthy and has his head right. Eladio Espinosa should help out at the forward position which was a major weakness last season.


2008-2009 Backcourt Outlook:

Any discussion of the Bulls must start with Dominique Jones, a 6-foot-4 sophomore guard, who is coming off an all-freshman season with South Florida in 2007-2008. Jones proved he can score the basketball at the high-major level, averaging over 18 points a game in Big East play. It did take Jones plenty of shots to score his points (14 a game in conference play), but he showed the ability to get to the line, grab some rebounds and add a few assists along the way.

The major question is who will help him out in the scoring department this season. It will be hard to believe anyone in the frontcourt will be counted on, so not having Gransberry inside might slow Jones down this season. The obvious candidates to add offense to the Bulls attack are his backcourt mates, Jesus Verdejo and Mike Mercer, as both were one-time highly touted recruits that are on their second homes.

Verdejo is a 6-foot-4 wing that originally started his career at Arizona before coming to South Florida after his freshman season. Verdejo finally started to show some consistency with his offense last season and reached double figures in eight of their last nine games, averaging 13.5 points a game in that span. The Bulls will need a consistent offensive output from him this season if they have any hopes of pulling out of the league’s cellar.

Mercer is a very interesting dynamic for this squad. The Snellville (GA) native was a 5-star recruit who stayed home to play at Georgia out of high school and the 6-foot-4 guard had the total package. Injuries and some other difficulties diluted his performance his first two seasons, however, he still managed to average over 13 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists as a sophomore in the SEC. The injury that cut short his 2006-2007 season kept him out of action in the beginning of 2007-2008 and he was also suspended from the team for not living up to his responsibilities. Now, he is looking for new life with South Florida and if he can find his place within the team come December when he is eligible, he becomes their most talented player from the start.

At point guard the Bulls have Chris Howard, a true point guard to run the show. Howard is not one to count on to score the points, but he will distribute the basketball and keep the players on the floor on the same page. Last season he averaged 8 points and 5 assists a contest in his fir full healthy campaign of his college career. Howard had missed the previous year and a half before finding the court in the ladder half of the 2006-2007 season following a couple knee surgeries that delayed his college career from getting started.

Look for Howard, Jones and Verdejo to start at the 1-2-3 to begin the season and then Mercer will work his way into the mix once he is eligible and play all three positions. Freshmen Gaby Belardo and Justin Leemow will add depth, but are not expected to provide too much in terms of production once the Big East schedule rolls around.


2008-2009 Frontcourt Outlook:

This is the area where South Florida will have a very tough time competing in the ultra competitive Big East. Even with Kentrell Gransberry last season the Bulls struggled with Big East competition upfront, mostly because of their lack of talent at the forward position. Now, there is a major question of their available talent for this season at both the center and power forward positions with Gransberry moving on.

First, if Gus Gilchrist is granted eligibility to play immediately, it is a great lift to South Florida. He will not match what Gransberry gave the Bulls the last two seasons, but he immediately becomes the Bulls best player in the frontcourt offensively, defensively and on the boards. However, freshmen big men often struggle in this conference and do not expect Gilchrist to be any different in that regard, but the quicker he is on the floor, the quicker he will get past that stage.

Without Gilchrist, this year’s Bulls will be virtually without any Big East-level talent in the frontcourt. Eladio Espinosa has some promise and is likely the starter at power forward, at least the one with the most potential, but Aris Williams and Mobalaji Ajayi are, at best, fillers on most Big East rosters. JUCO transfer Alex Rivas-Sanchez could provide some help on defense and on the boards, but he is best suited for a back-up, 10-minute role. If Gilchrist is not available, he could be the player manning the majority of minutes in the pivot.

2008-2009 Team Outlook:

Despite an improving backcourt with a burgeoning star in Dominique Jones and a potential star in Mike Mercer, the South Florida outlook is not that bright for this coming season. The truth is, everyone in the Big East has quality guards with many of the teams having great guard play, which obviously helps your NCAA Basketball Odds. What is likely going to separate the contenders from the rest of the league is what kind of production on both ends of the floor they get from their frontcourt. With the Bulls, their frontcourt looks like it will be manhandled in the Big East. Like last season, expect the Bulls to look good at times, especially in the out of conference portion of their schedule. They will hang with some Big East opponents because of their guards, but as the game moves along, their lack of talent in the frontcourt will make it AWFULLY tough to win games. They have played teams tough at home and have many near misses for upsets, that trend is likely to continue, but it will be a long year in the Big East for Stan Heath and his crew and do not expect any March Madness Betting with the Bulls this year, but at least they will get to see MSG and the Big East Tournament for the first time.


2008-2009 Big East Prediction: 2-16

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BIG EAST FOOTBALL PREVIEW: GAME #4 SOUTH FLORIDA

September 19, 2008


The South Florida Bulls are 3-0 and coming off an exciting home win over nationally ranked Kansas when Maikon Bonani connected on a 43 yard field goal to lift USF to a 37-34 win.

The impressive part of the USF start is they have won two tough games in a row (also at UCF) without Mike Ford, their talented running back, who has been injured. They may have found a talented 1-2 combination when ford returns as the speedy Jamar Taylor had some big carried in the win over KU and took some pressure of Matt Grothe who has dominated their offense since the Ford injury. A better balance offensively will go a long way in helping the Bulls continue in their quest for the Big East championship. The Bulls will close out the month of September next weekend again NC State of the ACC and then they tackle the Big East schedule, not to look too far ahead, but this Bulls team has put themselves in a very nice position to have a shot at running the table...taking care of business on the road this weekend and next weekend will make things VERY interesting.

Up this weekend is a road date with Florida International. The Bulls have already gone on the road to face a fired up Central Florida program and escaped with an overtime win. This game should not be as difficult. It is the first home game for FIU, who have lost on the road to Kansas (40-10) and Iowa (42-0), but do not expect much of a lift from being on their home field in this one for FIU. At this point, there is no NCAA Betting Line for this match-up, in reality, probably no matter, USF will will handily and continue their march for a Big East championship.

Prediction:

South Florida 48
Florida Int. 17

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BIG EAST FOOTBALL PREVIEW: GAME #3 SOUTH FLORIDA

September 11, 2008


It is a short week for both Kansas and South Florida as they two rising programs meet for their own edition of Friday Night Lights.

I am still trying to figure out exactly how Central Florida was able to take USF to overtime last weekend. We are not really complaining, as we picked the Bulls to win, but sided with UCF plus the 14 in the sportsbook.

Anyway, it should not have been that close. South Florida out-gained UCF 504 yards to 226. Had 25 1st downs compared to just 12 for UCF. UCF was penalized 12 times for nearly 150 yards, and, it took OT for the Bulls to come out with a victory in the closing game of the rivalry.

One factor is the injury to USF star RB Mike Ford, who is again listed as questionable because of an ankle injury. With Ford out of the line-up, pretty much everything goes through QB Matt Grothe. Last week Grothe threw the ball 40 times and ran it another 20, accounting for 60 of their 85 offensive plays. Not a bad idea, but to beat Kansas, they will either need a healthy Ford or more offensive balance.

The Jayhawks are 2-0 after outscoring Florida International and Louisiana Tech 69-10 in a pair of home victories. This will be their first test and it comes on the road in front of a juiced up Friday night crowd, a tough situation for KU. However, quarterback Todd Reesing is a cool customer who threw for nearly 3,500 yards with 33 touchdowns and just 7 interceptions last season. Do not expect him to be too rattled by the environment.

Current football lines are showing USF as the 3.5-point favorite, I do think they respond in front of the home folks and are a source of pride for the Big East on Friday night.

Prediction:

South Florida 27
Kansas 21

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BIG EAST FOOTBALL PREVIEW: WEEK #2 SOUTH FLORIDA

September 4, 2008


After watching several Big East football teams stumble all over themselves in week #1, it was refreshing to see South Florida do no such thing as they stomped on Tennessee Martin early, scoring 28 1st quarter points, in a 56-7 victory.

The task is tougher this weekend as the Bulls travel to meet in-state rival Central Florida on Saturday evening. UCF will have a nice Saturday night crowd under the lights and motivation after being humiliated 64-12 last season.

The Bulls have some tough games ahead of them with dates against Kansas and a trip to NC State in their out of conference schedule, so looking past UCF is a possibility. The Bulls have talent with Mike Ford at running back and Matt Grothe at QB, so expect them to have the leadership at key positions to get the job done.

The NCAA Football Odds indicate USF is a 14-point road favorite. Look for UCF to kick it up a notch and, while the Bulls have more talent, the Knights will keep this game from getting out of hand with some inspired play.

Prediction:

South Florida 33
UCF 21

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